According to NASA, a large asteroid that was briefly considered a threat to Earth only weeks ago may now be headed for a collision with the Moon, sending shockwaves through the scientific world. The asteroid 2024 YR4, which is about 197 feet (60 meters) long, is no longer a threat to Earth, according to fresh data from leading space agencies. But now, scientists think there’s a 2% chance it could hit the Moon. A more accurate estimate of the asteroid’s course is provided by the latest discoveries, which were made possible by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on March 26.
The James Webb Space Telescope from NASA warns of the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon
European planetary defense strategy leader Julia de León, a planetary scientist at the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands, expressed her enthusiasm for the possible lunar impact. Nothing would happen if it struck the Moon; therefore, we wouldn’t be in any danger. However, it would be a fantastic chance to witness a lunar impact and its immediate effects,” de León told El PaÃs. We are aware that the Moon has many craters and that tiny objects frequently strike its surface, but we have never witnessed an object larger than 164 feet (50 meters) collide with the Moon. It would be fantastic.
When NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced that asteroid 2024 YR4 might strike Earth, it grabbed headlines in early February. The United Nations then invoked the Planetary Security Protocol for the first time in its history. According to the Torino Scale, the space rock, which was at the time expected to be between 40 and 90 meters in size, had a 1% risk of impact and was categorized as Level 3. Over the next few days, NASA raised those impact projections to 3.1%. However, the risk likelihood was drastically reduced to almost nil once they were revised using other observatories, removing any worries about a direct impact on our planet.
However, the Moon might not be safe, even while Earth is. The asteroid is about 60 meters in size, according to the most recent JWST observations. This is important because it is larger than the 50-meter threshold that causes the United Nations Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, a task force tasked with developing methods for avoiding potentially dangerous near-Earth objects, to issue an alert. De León pointed out that this is the size barrier at which an asteroid could do serious harm. Within 50 to 62 miles (80 to 100 kilometers), an impact with a 60-meter diameter may cause devastation.
The dangers of space rocks explained by NASA
Although an impact on the Moon would be harmless to Earth, the planetary defense and NASA experts are closely watching 2024 YR4 because of the devastation asteroids of similar size have caused in the past. The 2013 Chelyabinsk event, in which a 66-foot (20-meter) asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere over Russia, is among the more notable cases. Despite its relatively small size, it exploded with the force of 35 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs, shattering windows across thousands of buildings and injuring approximately 1,500 people due to the blast wave.
While scientists are not currently considering the prospect of another Earth impact, they are keen to investigate the potential consequences of a 2024 YR4 collision with the Moon. “I hope it does,” de León said. Telescopes on the ground and in space could be used to monitor the impact. It would be an incredibly wonderful educational opportunity. Another series of James Webb observations is planned for May, allowing NASA researchers to further revise estimations of the asteroid’s likelihood of impacting the moon.
